Saturday, May 9, 2026
Much of market theory assumes that price movement is difficult to predict because information is reflected in prices quickly. If that were fully accurate, persistent and measurable patterns would be less likely to endure. They do. Trends develop and can extend beyond what randomness alone would suggest. Leadership becomes concentrated and can remain in place […]
We’ve all heard the old saying, “experience is the best teacher.” It sticks with me, even if I didn’t always appreciate it. Like most people, I wanted to skip ahead. I wanted the results, without the repetition. But experience doesn’t work that way. These days, we live in a world where information is everywhere. You […]
The weather is finally turning, which means more time outside and fewer walls between my kids and any bad decisions they might make, like kicking a soccer ball into the dining room chandelier. Over the weekend, I took them to a new park with an obstacle course. It did not take long to spot the […]
If you have followed my work for any length of time, you have become familiar with Hetty Green. When I first began writing about her, she was largely absent from mainstream investment conversations. That has started to change. Her name appears more frequently, but the explanation for her success remains incomplete. My work is grounded […]
If you spend enough time studying markets, patterns begin to emerge that have very little to do with price and everything to do with behavior. I recently revisited a historical overview of early market participation and the development of Wall Street. While it presents itself as a timeline, what stands out is not the sequence […]
As Women’s History Month comes to a close, I find myself thinking about a name that rarely appears in discussions of financial history: Hetty Green. Her story is worth revisiting because it illustrates a practical lesson about how wealth is built during periods of financial stress, a lesson that becomes particularly clear when […]
Many years ago, I was at an event in New York City when a colleague told me that while he respected the research that earned me the 2015 Charles H. Dow Award, he believed options were simply a playground for traders chasing quick, risky profits. I did not respond at the time, but I also […]
Paradigms shape how we interpret markets. Traders and long-term investors operate under very different ones, and I find trading paradigms are easier for me to understand. Long-term investors believe they can identify future leaders. In the 1980s, they bet on Commodore as personal computers reshaped the world. In the 1990s, they backed Motorola. Later, many […]
Long before I managed trades each week, I managed uncertainty for a living. As an intelligence analyst, my job was not to predict the future. It was to make careful, structured decisions when the information in front of me was partial, unclear, and at times intentionally misleading. That difference matters. Trying to predict feels powerful […]
This week, I found myself thinking about how I actually discovered my edge in trading. It was not luck. It was not a hot tip. It was a process. There were three clear steps. First, I noticed something in the market that aligned with how I naturally think and trade. I was not trying to […]
