Monday, March 9, 2026
Paradigms shape how we interpret markets. Traders and long-term investors operate under very different ones, and I find trading paradigms are easier for me to understand. Long-term investors believe they can identify future leaders. In the 1980s, they bet on Commodore as personal computers reshaped the world. In the 1990s, they backed Motorola. Later, many […]
Long before I managed trades each week, I managed uncertainty for a living. As an intelligence analyst, my job was not to predict the future. It was to make careful, structured decisions when the information in front of me was partial, unclear, and at times intentionally misleading. That difference matters. Trying to predict feels powerful […]
This week, I found myself thinking about how I actually discovered my edge in trading. It was not luck. It was not a hot tip. It was a process. There were three clear steps. First, I noticed something in the market that aligned with how I naturally think and trade. I was not trying to […]
I recently came across the term Paid FUD. It refers to the deliberate spreading of fear, uncertainty, and doubt (thus FUD). My newsletter subscribers regularly share information they found, sometimes putting a very negative spin on one of my recommended investments. Firms focused on short-selling have been known to issue negative “research reports” on stocks […]
Markets are adjusting to competing signals rather than moving in a single, clear direction. Interest rate expectations remain divided. Financial markets have reacted to the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s policy will remain restrictive for longer, which has supported a stronger dollar and pressured assets that benefited from easier conditions. At the same time, futures […]
One hazard of my work is that I spend too much time watching or listening (thanks, SiriusXM) to financial news networks. The bulk of the discussion revolves around what could go wrong with either an investment theme or specific stocks. My newsletter subscribers stay busy sending me the warnings about the next financial meltdown they’ve […]
Recently, a piece of global debt data stood out to me. Not because it signals an immediate market event, but because it helps explain the kind of market environment investors are navigating. According to the International Monetary Fund, six of the seven largest developed economies now carry government debt equal to or greater than their […]
Markets have been processing a wide range of policy and international developments at the same time. Bond yields have adjusted, commodities have been active, and risk has been repriced unevenly across asset classes. These conditions often feel difficult to interpret because signals are mixed and narratives shift quickly. But they do not prevent opportunity from […]
The current financial news cycle is dense, with a range of policy and international developments unfolding simultaneously. These moments naturally attract attention. Even for those trained to analyze information rather than react to it, the volume of competing narratives can be difficult to ignore. That tendency is not a flaw. It reflects how humans process […]
Seasonal patterns are useful only when they provide context. Once the window closes, the focus shifts away from the narrative and toward what the market actually delivered. That is where clarity begins. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about the Santa Claus Rally and its place in market history. Now that the seasonal window […]
