Sunday, March 26, 2023
The U.S. economy will likely experience a recession this year. We may already be in one. I believe the 2023 slowdown will be significantly different compared to recent economic contractions. Memorable recessions are usually associated with a larger financial crisis, such as the bursting of the dotcom bubble or out-of-control subprime mortgage lending, such as […]
Interest rates have been the focus on 2023 so far (to the surprise of no one). One way to trade interest rates is by using ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT). TBT moves with the direction of rates (yields) and opposite the direction of bond prices. With rates the highest they’ve been in […]
Last week the U.S. stock market experienced its biggest one-day decline in several years. A rapid yield increase on the 10-year Treasury note triggered the stock market route. The market runup in January was due to investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon start to ease interest rates.February reversed that enthusiasm, and the stock […]
New Year is in just a couple days. We spent Christmas in my house noisily with one of my two granddaughters in attendance, with a prime rib roasting away. As is tradition, my wife had the TV tuned to a station that plays seasonal tones while the screen is filled with a roaring fireplace. Now […]
Howard Marks, the billionaire founder and chairman of Oaktree Capital, sends out his “Memos” several times a year. His December issue, titled Sea Change, offers food for thought about successful investment strategies to use in the new year. Let’s take a look, and see how we can earn some nice cash returns next year with […]
The stock market has proven to be very resilient in recent months. Even as Federal Reserve officials talk about the need for interest rates to be higher than expected for longer than anticipated, the markets have managed to hang on to the idea that if the pace of rate hikes slows, the eventual destination does […]
In the current environment, with interest rates rising and inflation still threatening the U.S. economy, it is hard to find many who are bullish on real estate. Momentum is very negative, and that will not change overnight. However, when everyone hates a sector, as currently seems to be the case with real estate-related securities, it […]
Along with a bear market for stocks, 2022 has, according to Morningstar, been the worst year ever for the bond market. Bond values have fallen up to 30% this year, putting a bigger dent in many retirement accounts that hold bond ETFs. Fortunately, in the current, higher interest rate world, you can invest safely in […]
A recent article on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) had me going, “huh?” The story covers MBSs being very popular when mortgage rates were less than 3%, but now with rates over 7%, large, institutional buyers are staying away. That’s one reason why mortgage rates are so high, despite MBSs in theory being more profitable today. That’s […]
If you think that last week’s inflation numbers would cause the Fed to pivot, I have a bridge conveniently located in lower Manhattan that offers easy access to Brooklyn available for immediate sale. You could make millions charging other people big bucks to use your new bridge and recoup your costs in no time. Yes, […]
