Thursday, October 15, 2026
In the past year and a half or so, there’s been lots of talk about the U.S. yield curve essentially inverting. So today, I wanted to make a couple of important points about it that’s important for you to see. As you know, the yield curve visually depicts how bond maturity dates and interest rates […]
“Don’t fight the Fed.” Famed fund manager Marty Zweig came up with that one in 1970 and repeated it religiously until he passed away in 2013. The Federal Reserve has been raising rates since March of 2022, and Fed funds rates have gone from 0.25% to more than 5%. Three-month Treasury yields have risen from […]
Last week, the Federal Reserve decided to pause its rate hiking efforts to slow down inflation.Fed Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank is not done fighting inflation yet, and that this is just a brief pause to allow the committee to observe how the rate hikes impact the economy.From where I […]
I have said it before, and I will say it again: I am not a huge fan of the broader market at these levels. While the recent banking turmoil has raised the possibility that the Federal Reserve would cut rates soon, I think we have a better chance of the Cincinnati Reds winning the World […]
The U.S. economy will likely experience a recession this year. We may already be in one. I believe the 2023 slowdown will be significantly different compared to recent economic contractions. Memorable recessions are usually associated with a larger financial crisis, such as the bursting of the dotcom bubble or out-of-control subprime mortgage lending, such as […]
Interest rates have been the focus on 2023 so far (to the surprise of no one). One way to trade interest rates is by using ProShares Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TBT). TBT moves with the direction of rates (yields) and opposite the direction of bond prices. With rates the highest they’ve been in […]
Last week the U.S. stock market experienced its biggest one-day decline in several years. A rapid yield increase on the 10-year Treasury note triggered the stock market route. The market runup in January was due to investor expectations that the Federal Reserve would soon start to ease interest rates.February reversed that enthusiasm, and the stock […]
New Year is in just a couple days. We spent Christmas in my house noisily with one of my two granddaughters in attendance, with a prime rib roasting away. As is tradition, my wife had the TV tuned to a station that plays seasonal tones while the screen is filled with a roaring fireplace. Now […]
Howard Marks, the billionaire founder and chairman of Oaktree Capital, sends out his “Memos” several times a year. His December issue, titled Sea Change, offers food for thought about successful investment strategies to use in the new year. Let’s take a look, and see how we can earn some nice cash returns next year with […]
The stock market has proven to be very resilient in recent months. Even as Federal Reserve officials talk about the need for interest rates to be higher than expected for longer than anticipated, the markets have managed to hang on to the idea that if the pace of rate hikes slows, the eventual destination does […]
