Saturday, May 16, 2026
Much of market theory assumes that price movement is difficult to predict because information is reflected in prices quickly. If that were fully accurate, persistent and measurable patterns would be less likely to endure. They do. Trends develop and can extend beyond what randomness alone would suggest. Leadership becomes concentrated and can remain in place […]
We’ve all heard the old saying, “experience is the best teacher.” It sticks with me, even if I didn’t always appreciate it. Like most people, I wanted to skip ahead. I wanted the results, without the repetition. But experience doesn’t work that way. These days, we live in a world where information is everywhere. You […]
The weather is finally turning, which means more time outside and fewer walls between my kids and any bad decisions they might make, like kicking a soccer ball into the dining room chandelier. Over the weekend, I took them to a new park with an obstacle course. It did not take long to spot the […]
As Women’s History Month comes to a close, I find myself thinking about a name that rarely appears in discussions of financial history: Hetty Green. Her story is worth revisiting because it illustrates a practical lesson about how wealth is built during periods of financial stress, a lesson that becomes particularly clear when […]
Long before I managed trades each week, I managed uncertainty for a living. As an intelligence analyst, my job was not to predict the future. It was to make careful, structured decisions when the information in front of me was partial, unclear, and at times intentionally misleading. That difference matters. Trying to predict feels powerful […]
This week, I found myself thinking about how I actually discovered my edge in trading. It was not luck. It was not a hot tip. It was a process. There were three clear steps. First, I noticed something in the market that aligned with how I naturally think and trade. I was not trying to […]
Markets are adjusting to competing signals rather than moving in a single, clear direction. Interest rate expectations remain divided. Financial markets have reacted to the possibility that the Federal Reserve’s policy will remain restrictive for longer, which has supported a stronger dollar and pressured assets that benefited from easier conditions. At the same time, futures […]
Recently, a piece of global debt data stood out to me. Not because it signals an immediate market event, but because it helps explain the kind of market environment investors are navigating. According to the International Monetary Fund, six of the seven largest developed economies now carry government debt equal to or greater than their […]
When I was a U.S. Air Force pilot, the phrase “Trust but Verify” was used in negotiations with the USSR concerning nuclear arms control agreements. The term is originally a popular Russian phrase that President Ronald Reagan adopted. I was reminded of Reagan’s warning when I read a recent Advisor Update email from The Daily […]
