Markets have taken a turn in recent weeks. The short to intermediate term is down for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. Meanwhile, the short, medium, and long-term trends have all turned negative for the Russell 2000 in the past month. Microcap cap stocks have been in a downtrend since earlier this year and […]

My newsletter investment recommendations focus on dividend or interest-paying securities. I prefer alternative asset categories for investments that don’t generate cash income. I recently started investing in casks of whiskey to earn returns from the natural value gains as whiskey ages. Let me show you why this is such an interesting way to invest… When […]

During my entire 35+ year career, Latin American markets have been something of a mess. There have been flashes of greatness, but inevitably, something happens to send the market spiraling lower once again. In other words, Latin American countries have been emerging markets that never emerged. I can go through example after example, but then […]

It should come as no secret that I am not wildly bullish on the future of the stock market. Everything I see indicates that the long-term returns from stocks will be low to worse than that for several years, if not longer. If that is a surprise to you, I did a webinar on Monday […]

In the days before software, if engineers wanted to know if an idea worked, they would first have to build a three-dimensional physical model. But this method had one major flaws: not everything scales linearly. What worked fine on a smaller scale may turn into a disaster when made larger. Thankfully, today, we have simulation […]

It’s coming. You cannot stop it. The media cannot stop it by declaring it will not happen. The economy is going to slow down. A recession is still more likely than not. Even if the Fed stops raising rates (which is almost entirely dependent on energy and rent prices at this point), they will not […]

It’s common knowledge on Wall Street that September has historically been a challenging month for stocks. In the 95 Septembers since 1928, the S&P 500 has closed down 52, more than in any other month, according to Yardeni Research. If we narrow our focus to look at monthly returns over the past 30 years and […]

In today’s Hidden Profit Report, I want to revisit the concept of “Loving the Toxic.” The market is clearly overextended and overvalued right now. In fact, the reading on one of my favorite valuation measures, the Excess CAPE Yield, is now at levels seen in 1969 and 2000. Today’s economy and stock market have similarities […]

Today, I want to talk a little more about what does and does not work in trading and investing. The media and publishing industry are constantly screaming about new ideas and strategies that are going to make you rich in very short order. The best advice I ever got about markets and life was a […]