Long before I managed trades each week, I managed uncertainty for a living.
As an intelligence analyst, my job was not to predict the future. It was to make careful, structured decisions when the information in front of me was partial, unclear, and at times intentionally misleading. That difference matters. Trying to predict feels powerful in the moment, but building and following a disciplined process is what actually holds up over time.
One of the most influential figures in intelligence analysis, Richards Heuer, spent his career studying why capable analysts reach flawed conclusions. His central insight was not that analysts lacked information or integrity. It was that human cognition itself introduces distortion. We anchor to early data. We disproportionately weigh more vivid events. We search for confirming evidence. And once an outcome occurs, hindsight bias convinces us it was obvious all along.
That framework fundamentally shaped how I approach markets.
In intelligence, we were trained to slow down instinct. Define the problem precisely. Generate multiple plausible explanations. Actively seek evidence that would disprove our preferred conclusion. The goal was not comfort; it was intellectual rigor. Surprise was treated as inevitable, not as proof of failure. The failure was untested assumptions.
Markets operate under the same constraints. Information is fragmented. Incentives are misaligned. Narratives compete for dominance. After a sharp rally, bullish arguments feel airtight. After a selloff, risk appears glaring and self-evident. The mind rewrites uncertainty into inevitability. That cognitive shift is dangerous for capital.
When I developed the ITV indicator, the indicator I use in each of my weekly trading services, I was not trying to forecast the next dominant theme or identify the most exciting growth story. I was building structure around volatility and fear. ITV functions as a refined measure of internal market pressure.
That rules-based structure is deliberate. It prevents me from reshaping a signal to fit a headline or a feeling. When markets get loud and volatile, it keeps the process steady.
Each week in my services, the process reflects the same analytic discipline I relied on in intelligence. We assess conditions, identify where fear exceeds structure, define risk before entry, and size positions appropriately. We do not assume certainty. We manage probabilities. We accept that occasional surprise is part of the system and design around it.
The advantage is not seeing the future. It is thinking clearly and following your process when the pressure rises.
That is the foundation behind ITV. It is not built on prediction, but on process. Not on stories, but on structure.
And that disciplined approach has produced consistent results.
Tim Plaehn Just Gave Away His Best Stock - For Free
I need to tell you what just happened. Earlier this week, Tim Plaehn went live with his Energy Surge briefing - and gave away the name and ticker symbol of the single best-performing stock he's ever recommended. For free. The response has been extraordinary. If you missed the event, the replay is still available: Watch Tim's Energy Surge briefing now, click here.
