Energy stocks posted strong share price gains as crude oil soared after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. From late February to early April, crude oil futures went from $65 per barrel to a peak of $115 per barrel. Since mid-May, oil has fallen from $108 to a current $73 per barrel.
Energy stocks zoomed higher in the 2026 first quarter, but have recently given back much of the gains. Here is the year-to-date stock price chart for Exxon Mobil (XOM):
For reference, here is the S&P GSCI Crude Oil index chart:
My takeaway from these charts is that the highest crude oil prices occurred during the second quarter of the year. That quarter closes out this week, and energy companies will start reporting Q2 earnings in a few weeks. It is possible that when investors see actual earnings, they will decide that the energy stock sell off was overdone. Let’s look at some earnings estimates.
For the 2025 fourth quarter, Exxon Mobil reported earnings of $1.71 per share; for the first quarter, earnings were $1.16 per share. The company will report earnings on July 31, and the Wall Street consensus estimate is $3.74 per share in earnings—200% higher than the first quarter results. Quarterly earnings are forecast to stay above $3.00 for the rest of the year.
I am a fan of, and investor in, pure-play refiners. For the first quarter, Valero Energy Corp (VLO) reported earnings of $4.22 per share. For the second quarter, which will be reported on July 30, the earnings estimate is a massive $10.06 per share. Seeking Alpha shows forward 12-month earnings of $29.82 per share. Valero trades at just eight times the forward earnings.
There is an interesting way to gain exposure to energy stock investments. Here are the top holdings for the Westwood Enhanced Energy Income ETF (WEEI):
With the enhanced income part, WEEI pays a 12% yield. I also hope to see a nice pop in the share price as Q2 earnings come out.
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