Higher interest rates can create problems for income investments. But some lenders have a business model that can benefit when rates rise.
Business Development Companies, or BDCs, often make floating-rate loans to middle-market businesses. When benchmark rates increase, the interest collected on those loans can increase as well.
That makes the Federal Reserve’s December 8–9 meeting worth watching. As of November 9, market pricing indicated roughly an 80% probability of a quarter-point increase. Those expectations can change before the decision.
The investment case requires more than floating-rate assets, however. Funding costs also matter, and higher interest payments can put pressure on borrowers. Hercules Capital’s disclosures illustrate the balance: its floating-rate loans create earnings sensitivity, while some of its own borrowing costs also rise with rates.
For income investors, the practical question is whether any additional earnings would strengthen dividend coverage. Three BDCs offer different starting points.
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC)
Ares Capital reported third-quarter core earnings of $0.46 per share and declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $0.48. Net asset value ended the quarter at $19.31 per share.
The dividend represents an annualized payment of $1.92 if maintained. At a hypothetical purchase price of $19.20, that would produce a 10% yield.
The important detail is coverage. Quarterly core earnings covered approximately 96% of the dividend, leaving a small shortfall. One quarter does not determine dividend sustainability, but it gives investors a clear reason to watch subsequent earnings.
Higher benchmark rates could help income from floating-rate loans. However, Ares also has floating-rate funding exposure, including debt affected by interest-rate swaps. The benefit depends on the change in asset income after financing costs.
For investors evaluating ARCC, the next earnings reports should show whether coverage improves and whether borrowers continue meeting their obligations.
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (BXSL)
Blackstone Secured Lending reported third-quarter net investment income of $0.68 per share and net asset value of $25.25. Approximately 95.1% of its investments were floating-rate debt, while 95.8% were first-lien senior secured debt.
That portfolio provides substantial exposure to higher benchmark rates. First-lien positions give the lender priority over junior creditors, although investors still need to evaluate borrower quality and repayment capacity.
The dividend deserves particular attention. BXSL declared $0.77 per share for the fourth quarter, followed by $0.60 for the first quarter of 2027. That is a reduction of approximately 22%.
Third-quarter earnings covered about 88% of the $0.77 payment. Against the forthcoming $0.60 payment, the same earnings would provide approximately 113% coverage.
The revised dividend annualizes to $2.40, or approximately 9.5% of September’s NAV. That is a yield calculated on book value; a shareholder’s actual dividend yield depends on the purchase price.
A rate increase could support earnings, but the more immediate change for income planning is the smaller declared payment.
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)
Hercules Capital provides financing to venture-backed and growth-stage businesses. Its third-quarter distribution totaled $0.47 per share, consisting of a $0.40 base payment and a $0.07 supplemental payment.
Third-quarter net investment income was also $0.47 per share. That covered the base dividend by approximately 118% and matched the combined payment.
Hercules provides a useful example of how the rate relationship works. At September 30, approximately 97.9% of its debt investments carried floating rates, while 79.4% of outstanding borrowings carried fixed rates. Its sensitivity analysis estimated that a quarter-point benchmark increase would add approximately $0.04 per share to annual earnings, assuming an unchanged portfolio and debt structure.
That would be a helpful incremental benefit, rather than a dramatic earnings jump.
The base payment annualizes to $1.60 per share. Including a $0.07 supplement every quarter would bring the total to $1.88, but investors should evaluate supplemental payments separately when planning dependable income.
Focus on Coverage Before the Headline Yield
A December rate increase could support these lenders’ earnings. The size and timing of the benefit will depend on their loan terms, financing costs, and borrower performance.
The current dividend figures provide the more useful starting point. ARCC has a modest quarterly coverage shortfall to monitor. BXSL has already declared a lower payment for early 2027. Hercules covered its base dividend with room to spare, while earnings matched its combined distribution.
For conservative income investors, the strongest opportunity is a lender that can collect its interest, protect its capital, and consistently earn enough to support its payments. A favorable Fed decision can help, but dividend sustainability must carry the investment case.
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