At the start of September, I replaced two stocks in the Velocity Report portfolio with two new ones. I share my thoughts on the trades shortly.
As I write this, the portfolio continues to perform very well in the third quarter. My tracking spreadsheet shows a 4.5% gain this quarter. My personal Velocity Report account is up over 7%. I am not sure why there’s a difference, but I like earning more when it’s real money!
Now on to the September trades.
We had discussed whether VICI Properties (VICI) and Fidelity National Finance (FNF) were bringing anything positive to the portfolio. FNF has been in a downtrend since April 2025, and since it’s closely tied to the housing market, I don’t see much chance of a near-term recovery.
VICI acquired MGM Growth Properties (which had been a very good Dividend Hunter stock) in April 2022, and the stock has done nothing since then. Over the last year, VICI is down 23% and shows no signs of turning around.
I think it’s the right time to bring Blue Owl Capital (OWL) back into the portfolio. The private credit fearmongering has disappeared from the financial news, and the OWL share price has turned higher. I have a detailed write-up of OWL in this newsletter issue. I think this stock could gain 50% in the next year or so.
The UN has warned about a “supersized” El Niño weather event that is now occurring. It has been called the largest El Niño in 1,000 years. Rising temperatures are likely to cause major disruptions in food production, with varying effects around the world.
When I saw this news, I started looking for a food company and thought Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) fits the bill for the Velocity report portfolio.
This newsletter issue includes a detailed report on ADM.
Notes
Be sure to mark your calendar for our two events this month.
Monthly video mailbag: recorded and sent to you via email on the second Wednesday of every month just after 6:00 p.m. eastern. For September that would have been September 9th. In it I answer your questions and those of other subscribers. You can watch the most recent mailbag here and send your questions for the next one here.
Live monthly webinar: we’ll discuss our portfolio stocks and strategy along with updates. There will be time for your questions. The webinar starts at 4:30 p.m. on the fourth Wednesday of the month.The next one will be August 26th. Save this link to join us then: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/89682189402. Hope to see you there!
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Archer-Daniels-Midland
Business Overview
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) is a global agricultural supply-chain manager and processor that buys crops from farmers, moves and stores them through an extensive origination and logistics network, and converts those raw commodities into ingredients and products for food, animal feed, biofuels, and industrial uses. The company describes itself as connecting local harvests with global demand, operating across more than 70 countries with an integrated footprint of elevators, crush plants, mills, refineries, and specialty ingredient facilities. That integration is the core of the model: origination and merchandising generate volume and optionality, while processing captures crush and milling margins and supplies feedstocks to downstream businesses. In 2025, ADM generated about $80.3 billion in revenue, with the large majority coming from commodity-linked activities whose selling prices move with agricultural raw-material markets.
The dominant reportable segment is Ag Services and Oilseeds, which handles origination, merchandising, transportation, and storage of grains and oilseeds and crushes soybeans and soft seeds such as cottonseed, sunflower, canola, rapeseed, and flaxseed into vegetable oils and protein meals. Crude and refined oils go to food, industrial, and renewable-diesel customers; meals go into livestock and aquaculture feeds. Related activities include biodiesel and other refined products, as well as equity interests in processing joint ventures. Carbohydrate Solutions complements that platform through wet and dry milling of corn and wheat, producing sweeteners, starches, syrups, glucose, dextrose, wheat flour, ethanol, and co-products such as distillers grains and corn gluten feed. Together, these two segments account for most revenue and physical volume; in 2025, they processed tens of millions of metric tons of oilseeds and corn and generated the vast majority of external sales. Results in both businesses are sensitive to crush and milling margins, trade flows, and U.S. and international biofuel policy.
Nutrition is the smaller, higher-value segment that turns primary processing streams and purchased ingredients into specialty products for human food and beverage, dietary supplements, livestock and aquaculture feed, and pet food. Offerings include plant-based proteins, natural flavors and colors, flavor systems, emulsifiers, fibers, hydrocolloids, probiotics and other biotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts, along with complete feeds, premixes, and private-label pet treats. The segment is intended to add differentiated, less commodity-like earnings on top of the origination and milling base, and management has been pairing it with cost-reduction and portfolio-simplification programs, selected joint ventures in animal feed and cottonseed, and capacity additions in crush and fermentation. In practice, the three segments are linked: oilseeds and grain processing supply oils, proteins, starches, and fermentable sugars that Nutrition and biofuel customers use, while the global logistics network is meant to keep raw materials flowing even when regional harvests or trade rules shift.
Investment Considerations
Because most ADM’s results depend on commodity prices, results vary with swings in commodity values. Here are the Revenue and EPS for the last five years.
| Year | Revenue | Diluted EPS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $80.27 billion | $2.23 |
| 2024 | $85.53 billion | $3.65 |
| 2023 | $93.94 billion | $6.43 |
| 2022 | $101.56 billion | $7.71 |
| 2021 | $85.25 billion | $4.79 |
Profits are surging in 2026, with the company guiding EPS to $5.15 to $5.60 for the year. That’s over a 100% increase.
A Super El Niño currently underway is forecast to disrupt agricultural yields in many parts of the world. ADM’s profit surge could stretch well into 2027.
The ADM dividend has increased for 24 consecutive years. The increases have averaged 7% over the last five years. ADM announces dividend increases in early February.
Editor’s Personal Position: Long ADM
Portions of this article were written with the assistance of a large language model (LLM). The article has been vetted and edited by the Investors Alley editorial team. Tim Plaehn wrote the investment analysis.
Blue Owl Capital
Business Overview
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) is a leading alternative asset manager headquartered in New York, New York, specializing in private capital solutions. Formed in 2021 through the high-profile merger of Owl Rock Capital and Dyal Capital Partners, the firm has rapidly scaled to manage $319 billion in assets under management (AUM) as of mid-2026. Blue Owl differentiates itself in the alternative investment landscape by focusing heavily on permanent capital vehicles and long-dated private funds. This strategic structure ensures highly predictable, stable fee streams, with management fees as the primary driver of its business model.
The company distributes its investment strategies across three distinct multi-strategy platforms: Credit, Real Assets, and GP Strategic Capital. The Credit platform is Blue Owl’s largest business segment, commanding approximately $158.1 billion in AUM. Operating through various Business Development Companies (BDCs) and private funds, the Credit division acts as a prominent direct lender, originating senior secured, subordinated, and mezzanine loans primarily for middle-market and private equity-backed U.S. companies. Meanwhile, the Real Assets division focuses heavily on post-acquisition triple-net lease real estate structures and equity debt finance, and the GP Strategic Capital platform provides unique equity minority stakes, debt financing, and co-investments directly to other large alternative asset managers and professional sports franchises.
Blue Owl caters to a diverse base of institutional investors, insurance companies, and high-net-worth individual investors through private wealth channels. Backed by a global workforce of over 1,380 professionals, the firm actively pursues geographic expansion, recently establishing a strong physical presence in major financial hubs like Hong Kong, Abu Dhabi, and Dubai. By positioning itself as a highly specialized asset manager rather than a generalist firm, Blue Owl continues to capture market share in the rapidly expanding private credit and alternatives ecosystem by leveraging deep origination networks and institutional relationships.
Investment Considerations
From the 2021 merger through the end of 2024, OWL generated strong investment returns, driven by growing assets under management and very strong dividend growth.
The stock price dropped throughout 2025. The share price declined by 35%. Yet revenue grew 20% for the year, and net income per share rose 14%. The 2025 dividend was 25% higher than the 2024 dividend. The yield spiked from 2.8% to 5.5%.
At the end of 2025, OWL looked like a great turnaround candidate.
Then, in early 2026, private credit lending fear-mongering began in the financial news media. OWL was down by 45% by early April. I recommended selling OWL from the Velocity Report portfolio on February 19 at $11.44 per share.
The share price dropped below $10 and stayed there until the end of July. The recent uptrend has brought the stock back to where we sold in February. The private credit meltdown has proven unwarranted, and I think we can safely get back into OWL.
OWL currently yields almost 8%. My outlook is that without the fears that have hit the stock, the price could rise, dropping the yield to 5%. That would produce a 60% share price gain from here.
Editor’s Personal Position: Long OWL
Portions of this article were written with the assistance of a large language model (LLM). The article has been vetted and edited by the Investors Alley editorial team. Tim Plaehn wrote the investment analysis.
Portfolio Update
Here is a rundown on the current dividend status for each of the Velocity Report portfolio stocks:
Abbvie Inc. (ABBV) declared a $1.73 dividend on June 18. Payment was August 14. The current yield is 2.61%.
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) declared a $0.52 dividend on August 5. Payment is September 9; ex-dividend was August 19. The current yield is 2.56%.
Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corp. (AGM) declared a $1.60 dividend on August 12. Payment is September 30; ex-dividend is September 15. The current yield is 2.90%.
Antero Midstream (AM) declared a $0.225 dividend on July 15. Payment was August 12. The current yield is 4.07%.
Barrick Mining Corporation (B) declared a $0.175 dividend on August 10. Payment is September 15; ex-dividend was August 31. The current yield is 1.99%.
CME Group Inc. (CME) declared a $1.30 dividend on August 6. Payment is September 25; ex-dividend is September 9. The current yield is 4.13%.
Copa Holdings, SA (CPA) declared a $1.71 dividend on August 5. Payment is September 15; ex-dividend was August 31. The current yield is 5.26%.
EQT Corporation (EQT) declared a $0.165 dividend on July 15. Payment is September 1; ex-dividend was August 5. The current yield is 1.23%.
Diamondback Energy, Inc (FANG) declared a $1.10 dividend on August 4. Payment was August 20; ex-dividend was August 13. The current yield is 2.09%.
Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio ETF (FITZ) does not currently pay a dividend.
Kodiak Gas Services (KGS) announced a $0.49 dividend on August 5. Payment was August 27; ex-dividend was August 17. The current yield is 3.19%.
Liberty Energy (LBRT) announced a $0.09 dividend on July 15. Payment is September 18; ex-dividend is September 4. The current yield is 1.86%.
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) declared a $1.00 per share dividend on July 29. Payment is September 10; ex-dividend was August 19. The current yield is 1.11%.
Blue Owl Capital, Inc (OWL) announced a $0.23 dividend on July 31. Payment was August 27; ex-dividend was August 13. The current yield is 7.65%.
Bank OZK (OZK) announced a $0.48 dividend on July 1. Payment was July 20. The current yield is 3.89%.
Royal Gold, Inc (RGLD) declared a $0.475 per share dividend on August 18. Payment is October 16; ex-dividend is October 2. The current yield is 0.73%.
InfraCap Small Cap Income ETF (SCAP) declared a $0.25 monthly dividend on August 26. Payment was August 28; ex-dividend was August 27. The current yield is 7.06%.
Simon Property Group (SPG) announced a $2.25 dividend on August 11. Payment is September 30; ex-dividend is September 9. The current yield is 4.12%.
Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) announced a $1.20 dividend on July 16. Payment was August 31. The current yield is 1.38%.