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It's 2008 - Are you ready for the boom?
By Roland Manarin
Monday, December 31, 2007

Tis the season for . . .2008 market outlooks!

Investors during this time of year are constantly bombarded with predictions about where they can expect to make the most money this year with their investments. Once these “experts” have babbled on about their predictions long enough, a new story will break and these predictions will rarely be revisited.

I must admit that unlike these pundits, I cannot make forecasts at warp speed. I'm more of a throwback to a different time where I take a macro view of the market’s fundamentals before opening my mouth.

Doing so gives me the common sense needed to seek out underpriced market opportunities.

I love to go shopping for bargains and when I do, I mentally go up to the moon and look down on the turning Earth while asking myself, "What are the best values down there?"

Now by no means is this a sure thing but if my analysis has been correct, the best opportunities appear to be companies located right here in the good ole' US of A!

Despite all the negative headwinds and shortsightedness fanned by the media, here are some key fundamentals leading me to that conclusion:

  • Strong growth of the money supply. The money supply is to the economy what your blood is to your cardiovascular system. Over past year, the Fed has been pumping billions of dollars worth of oxygenated blood into the economy.

  • Corporate earnings growth. While the media may be able to set the short term tone of the market, it is earnings growth that sets the long term direction. And recent earnings growth has been excellent.

  • Increased consumer spending.

  • Americans hit a record net worth in spite of the downturn in real estate and the subprime credit crisis.

  • Low tax rates bringing in huge levels of tax receipts into the Treasury eating away the federal budget deficit.

  • Record number of Americans working and record earnings across all income categories.

  • Gains in foreign currency values. This has dropped the cost of our exports thus making American-made products (and shares of American companies) very attractive to foreigners.

  • No signs of weakening global economic output.

I could continue on and on but I hope you get the point.

Keep in mind though that when it comes to the world’s economies and the investment markets, there are no guarantees - my macro analysis can sometimes fail me short term which is why I diversify.

However, it appears that unless something out of the ordinary happens, we have every reason to remain very bullish on the U.S. stock market.

SO HERE’S MY 2008 OUTLOOK: Chances are we are now standing on the brink of a new economic boom in America but where the market winds up on December 31st 2008 is of little concern to me. As a long term investor so I’m more interested where the market will be 5 to 10 years from now, which in my opinion is going to be a heck of a lot higher than where it is now.

Roland Manarin is president of Omaha-based Manarin Investment Counsel, Ltd. and portfolio manager of the Lifetime Achievement Fund. He teaches seminars, hosts a weekly radio show, and for the last 30 years he has counseled investors on building and maintaining wealth. He can be reached at 402-330-1166 or 800-397-1167 or email to investor@manarin.com. www.manarin.com

 

 

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