(Editor's Note: A former CNBC market maven, Gene Inger now provides a weekly look ahead at the financial markets for Market Cap subscribers. Gene's daily comments can be seen on his website, IngerLetter.com.)
Slow-growth concerns . . . followed by 'Persian Gulf oil complex attack threats' are of course attributed as causal factor for Friday's decline. But as our audio hinted at at least for a week, the complex blow-off thrust was not only anticlimactic, but heavier Naval deployments were already signaled as leading to some sort of 'engagement'; a few days before Friday's sudden 'warning' (that we beat mainstream financial medias by at least an hour with, we're happy to say; allowing a shift from an intraday rebound long to a short-sale, around the 1391 area) having felt the session would be soft early before a desperate rebound, but then fade-anew into a nervous weekend.
MarketCast (intraday audio-email) comments addresses all of this and more, in quite thorough fashion, including discussion of rumored progress with Directed Energy or 'laser' weapons (which are not necessarily evolving the way the latest press suggest).
Due to the complexity of discussion and a 'weekly basis technical corner', most all of my remarks will be in the over-20-minute audio accompanying the Daily Briefing.
This week welcomed hints at a shift, because (if persevered) it might engender some small-cap (or mid-cap) resurgence as migration through final fiscal-year-end vestiges of selling by funds or other institutions completes; while overpriced big-caps struggle, and succumb on a short-term basis. The idea about 'tech' crumbling because of PC's and motherboard sales collapsing is hilarious, since nobody who doesn't have to will buy an outgoing XP machine, given a 90-day proximity to the new Vista arriving. So it may be just what we desire, ideally setting-up good entry points some weeks forward.
Remember, longer-run, we don't know that 'technical windsocks' aren't still pointing to higher altitude flight-levels, but saw turbulence actually showing-up on our Doppler Radar. It's just that every time the inability of 'creeping gremlins' to make a presence felt (typical in a battle at a short-term top or conversely a low), in this case becomes a set-up for running shorts just a bit, as long as they can until they can't (which is very problematic close to an Election, but also with Oil fairly neutral and a mixed Dollar).
Daily action . . . focused on the economic reports, a rebound, and then Gulf threats.
Per recent remarks about threats and the deployment of sizeable U.S. Navy or other Western naval forces (including 'Expeditionary Strike Forces'), during the day Friday we reported on 'threats' to oil platforms in the Persian Gulf as well as rumored attacks from sleeper cells in Kuwait, to disrupt the government and military installations there.
We subsequently noted the threat to the Saudi oil facilities; confirmed as follows (we emphasize that you note they are referring to a seaborne, not land-based, threat, as that would require a Naval or Naval/air response depending on the nature of attacks (and note that the Ras Tanura facility is the world's largest, so oil price would jump in an immediate and substantive way, we opine, in-event the facility was actually hit:
RIYADH (Reuters) - Top world oil exporter Saudi Arabia said on Friday it was taking measures to protect its oil and economic installations from a "terrorist threat".
Western naval forces in the Gulf have been deployed to counter a possible seaborne threat to its Ras Tanura oil terminal.
"The terrorist threat to the kingdom's economic installation exists and it is a declared goal of the straying faction to affect the interests of the Saudi citizen," an Interior Ministry spokesman said.
"Saudi security forces are cooperating and coordinating with the Saudi navy to take the necessary security measures," he told Reuters.
Bits & Bytes . . . provide investors ideas in a few stocks, often special-situations, but also covers an assortment of major technology issues (as needed for assessment of general factors in techs overall, or as compelling developments may call for) that are key movers in the NDX, SOX or S&P, plus ideas ingerletter.com thinks merit further reflection.
Broadwing (BWNG); Intel (INTC); Texas Instruments (TXN) Motorola (MOT); plus
Microsoft (MSFT); InkSure (INKS); Essex Corporation (KEYW); Ionatron (IOTN); PURE Bioscience (PURE); and QPC Lasers (QPCI) are commented upon in audio.
As always our caution that all speculative stocks; as well as all future technologies, to an extent have one always betting 'on the come', until or unless it does arrive. In such cases as stocks we cover, we not only believe 'core' technologies real, or customers and partners to be serious players, but suspect that stock purges, or future purges, if any, create most attractive prices for such issues in awhile, by virtue of the sharp and persisting retreats that have been seen. That's no assurance, but if a technology was of interest a month ago and nothing changed but share price; then it's still interesting.
Scheduled Economic News Releases:
Monday:
• Personal Income & Spending.
Tuesday:
• Redbook & UBS Retail Sales Index;
• Q3 Employment Cost Index;
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.
Wednesday:
• Construction Spending (for Sept.);
• Pending Home Sales (for Sept.);
• ISM (Oct.) Manufacturing Business Index.
Thursday:
• Challenger Layoffs (Oct.);
• Initial (weekly) Jobless Claims;
• Q3 Preliminary Productivity;
• Q3 Preliminary Costs;
• (Sept.) Factory Orders.
Friday:
• Employment Report (week's key data).
In summary . . events continue reminding us of risks Allied fighting forces face, given continued attacks on free peoples, by elements including organized terrorist forces in various countries. A world addressing terror threats continues, as domestic issues absorb us less as we focus on the Middle East crisis and World War III avoidance.
Though few generally concurred for three years, our consistent view has been slow but persistent American growth isn't negative, allowing the protracted gradual growth without ancillary significantly high interest rate pressures. There's no truly-restrictive monetary policy; nor is there likely to be one, irrespective of oil-induced inflationary pressures. This is a continuing saga. Often we get a speculative phase later in a bull market, but increasingly towards the end of an overall rising phase. In our view, there has not been that degree of speculation, but that is a potential feature developing let us suggest somewhere in the years ahead, maybe late 2007-2009, barring disaster.
McClellan Oscillator finds NY 'Mac' reversing now, at -22; NASDAQ flat at -2; fairly unimpressive readings lately for runs widely perceived exceeding new high ground.
Issues continue including oil, terror; Iraq; Iran; Kurdistan, Korea, and elsewhere. Consider that we likely extend again if nothing happens over the weekend, but at any time may not hold a move; then newly ease considerably. It is worth noting that they had 'stretched the rubber-band' enough so that when it does take a snap, it might not merely be a barely-irrelevant hardly-visible short-term ease, after of course a modest effort at rebound to see how the sentiments are. At the same time we're not enthused about playing to much on a trading basis (we cover that intraday and shared amply a concern about overextended short-term moves); more interested in buying good tech stocks cheaply as may become available soon, and a few speculative bets as well.
~Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing™ (The Inger Letter daily analysis on www.ingerletter.com)
Gene Inger's Daily Briefing™. .posted nightly by 9 pm on www.ingerletter.com. Analysis and a forecast of short-term market conditions. Posted 9 p.m. ET each evening. Focuses on events of significance, plus potential monetary or psychological impacts and a focus on likely next day action.
Gene's Daily Briefing™. . available at $159 quarterly, at our site or via the California office. American Express, Visa & MasterCard accepted; and are auto-renewed quarterly, unless otherwise instructed by the subscriber. 'Inger Seven' at $25 weekly provides access to that week's Dailies only (one-time trial). A Secure Server is used. If preferred, DB's may be ordered by fax, or through our office by phone or mail. Daily Briefing subscribers select their own user name and passwords at the site; while the 'Inger 7' is issued automatically. Single subscriptions are licenses to read, not redistribute, the Daily Briefing.
Gene’s been quoted over the years in Barron’s, The Wall Street Journal, Investor’s Business Daily, various major newspapers (New York and LA Times etc.) plus financial websites and radio stations as well. He has been a guest on CNN, PBS, an original CNBC market maven, and financial TV pioneer. Investors focused on the very short-term should subscribe to Gene Inger’s Daily Briefing posted at our website. Pattern ideas are postulated in the Daily; while intraday guidelines are provided via intraday MarketCast audio-email commentary (distributed in Microsoft's™ Window Media format).
Requisite disclaimer: Trading in securities of any type may not be suitable for all individuals. Futures or options can entail risk and volatility, versus investing. In our view, futures or options aren't investments, but speculations. Decisions are always solely a responsibility of, and at the discretion and risk of any trader. Discussions, or guidelines, in stocks & futures, are structured solely for purposes of giving shape and flow to our work. Patterns should be considered as guidelines only; to compliment your own or other good judgment, or that of your financial advisor. Market or economic forecasts are intended to be of a general nature, and should not be taken directly as a recommendation to buy or sell referenced securities, debt instruments, or futures contracts. To consider doing so; please consult your own broker or professional to determine suitability. No commentary is to be considered an offer to buy or sell securities. While we may own securities discussed, it's our custom simply to provide ideas; not to buy or sell stocks mentioned in opposition to directions projected, and to provide reasonable opportunity for subscribers to contemplate our ideas; unless fast market conditions do not provide sufficient time as sometimes is the case. If we do own an initial position, we'll say so. We do not sell on our initial coverage, unless a stock runs-up quickly, and then we say so; nor do we usually short anything, also unless referenced in our commentary. We also explicitly caution against chasing stocks after initial discussions.
Most strategies are short-to-intermediate in nature. Many traders who prefer equities to trading S&P's, will find similar moves among major tech stocks, that often can be treated as surrogates, or may consider utilizing 'mini' S&P, Dow, or the well-watched QQQ's. There's never a direct or indirect marketing relationship between our firm and any brokerage, hedge, mutual, advisory or financial PR firm. Right or wrong; our thinking is totally independent. We should be considered an independent resource; merely to supplement your own work and due diligence. Good past performance cannot be said to be an assurance of future results.
Intraday emails are confidential for use of subscribers to Gene Inger's MarketCast™ service. If you are not the addressee you may not copy, forward, disclose or use any part. Comments are Mr. Inger's observations at time of recording; thus not intended to constitute specific investment advice. Investment decisions are solely the responsibility of each investor. If you have received any communication or message in error, please notify ca.office@ingerletter.com as well as the sender.
Internet communications cannot be guaranteed to be timely, secure, error or virus-free. However, all messages are sent in the Microsoft 'Windows Media' audio or video format, which isn't an executable file, so normally is perfectly safe. The sender does not accept liability for any errors or omissions, as well as any market decisions. Mr. Inger's market analysis makes a best effort to interpret events, technical factors and fundamentals from his perspective, and are intended to augment the information from which an investor makes his or her decisions, but not replace the responsibility of each investor entirely for their own decisions.
E.E. Inger & Co., Inc., its officers and staff, shall not be liable for decisions made, or taken by you or others, based upon reliance on information, or material published by our resource services. All information provided is to be used, considered or evaluated by investors or readers, on an 'as is with all faults' basis. Finally, we fully respect subscriber privacy (as our own); reader names or email addresses are never rented or made available to any party for any purpose; period. We've never rented mailing lists in 36 years since first starting the Letter, the heritage for all services; it's Daily Briefing successor; or audio MarketCast comments.
© 2006 E.E. Inger & Co., Inc. All rights reserved. Reproduction in any form without permission prohibited; brief excerpt quotations are allowed, providing full accreditation with web-link or reference to our website is concurrently included.
Copyright© 2006 The Inger Letter- Daily Briefing™ & Gene Inger's MarketCast™. All rights reserved.